Dive Brief:
- Educators could predict — as early as kindergarten — whether students will achieve reading and math proficiency by 3rd grade, according to a study released Thursday by research and assessment company NWEA.
- Researchers found that reading and math skills upon entering kindergarten strongly foreshadow whether students will reach proficiency three years later. Only 1 in 10 of the lowest performing kindergarteners reached proficiency by 3rd grade, and by the end of 1st grade, those odds dropped to 1 in 50.
- Students' 3rd grade academic performance is considered an indicator for long-term academic and life outcomes. Early identification and intervention "is key as the door to proficiency quickly closes," said the analysis from NWEA, which administers the MAP Growth test.
Dive Insight:
Waiting to identify and support off-track students can significantly reduce the likelihood of reaching proficiency by 3rd grade, NWEA reported.
“What our data highlighted is that achievement at Kindergarten entry provides a meaningful signal about later academic outcomes,” said Megan Kuhfeld, director of growth modeling and data analytics at NWEA, in a Thursday statement.
“But I want to caution that these results should not be interpreted as evidence that students’ academic futures are predetermined. Adjusting trajectories is possible if early intervention is provided,” Kuhfeld said.
While early warning systems assessing students' academic performance are common in the later grades, "it's more complicated" for younger students who are often not tested before 2nd grade and whose development varies widely up until that point, according to the Strategic Data Project at Harvard University's Center for Education Policy Research.
"The unique growth that happens in early elementary school has raised questions about the appropriateness of standard tests and benchmarks," the SDP wrote in an analysis. "However, because third-grade literacy skills are a critical indicator of student outcomes, districts need to measure progress among students — and intervene as needed — before they reach that milestone."
However, NWEA said Thursday, many states lack systems to identify students who may be off track in both math and reading before 3rd grade, "missing that critical window where trajectories can be addressed for those at risk."
Third graders who read at grade level were four times more likely to graduate high school by age 19 compared to peers not reading at grade level, according to a 2011 report commissioned by the Annie E. Casey Foundation. On the other hand, 3rd graders who read above grade level are more likely to enroll in college, according to research published in 2010 by Chaplin Hall, a research and implementation nonprofit.
A 2018 study from the University of Arkansas found that students who don't read proficiently by 3rd grade are unlikely to ever do so.
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