While most types of districts have seen enrollment declines over the past decade, an outlying pattern of enrollment growth has emerged in “fringe” districts, or those situated on the outskirts of urban areas, often within commuting distance.
This finding among other enrollment trends came out of a recent Bellwether analysis that dug into where enrollment dips are hitting the hardest — and where enrollment is surging.
A key factor in widespread enrollment declines is the falling birth rate — every state and the District of Columbia experienced a drop of at least 6% between 2012 and 2024, Bellwether said. Other contributors include interstate migration and international immigration patterns. The Trump administration's recent immigration enforcement policies have also been linked to reduced student enrollment and attendance, the analysis said.
These shifts lead to reduced state funding for districts based on K-12 funding formulas, the analysis said.
“In the longer term, population declines can lead to reductions in a state’s labor force and major revenue streams, such as income and sales tax, which can negatively affect state education funding,” Bellwether said.
Another reason for enrollment declines is the uptick in private and homeschool enrollment, which Bellwether described as playing “a minor but notable role” in the trend. At the same time, the report found that charter school enrollment growth coincided with decreasing enrollment in traditional public schools over a decade. Charter school enrollment rose 64%, or by 1.5 million students, while public school district enrollment shrank 3%, losing 1.6 million students between fall 2012 and fall 2022.
Because current elementary school enrollment is smaller compared to secondary schools nationwide, the analysis said, it’s likely enrollment will continue to decrease in the coming years.
Here are key figures from Bellwether's data on declining enrollment and budget challenges.
