Dive Brief:

• While career and technical education credentials typically provide students with an income boost immediately after high school, those returns diminish as time passes, according to a study of long-term Ohio CTE program outcomes released this week by the Fordham Institute.
• The research also found that earning industry credentials in high school is, on average, negatively linked to college attendance and degree completion — veering from findings in prior studies. 
• Construction, transportation and manufacturing credentials were associated with stronger and longer-lasting wage returns, while credentials in education, human services and the arts had the worst earnings outcomes. Young men also benefited more from earning credentials than women, as they were more likely to earn high-value credentials.

Dive Insight:

Research is emerging on career and technical education effectiveness across a variety of metrics as these programs gain popularity among students, educators and lawmakers from both parties.

Overall, it's hit-or-miss as to whether credentials are meeting different goals, the report said.

A February working paper by the Annenberg Institute at Brown University examined student outcomes in Texas and found that earning credentials during high school didn’t increase employment likelihood — but it was associated with a 9% increase in earnings. Similar to Fordham's study released this week, it also found that those earnings increases varied by subject area, with transportation and construction seeing the largest benefits from credentials. 

The Annenberg study was based on six cohorts of public high school graduates between 2017 and 2022, representing nearly 1.7 million students. 

This evidence is emerging as states and the federal government continue investing in CTE programming. 

In their 2026 state of the state addresses, governors in at least 31 states and territories mentioned career and technical education and workforce development, according to a March analysis by the Education Commission of the States. Their speeches focused on smoothing transitions between high school and postsecondary pathways to meet workforce needs.

On the federal level, U.S. Education Secretary Linda McMahon, similar to her Democratic predecessor Miguel Cardona, has also backed strengthening CTE opportunities.

However, the Trump administration last year shifted the day-to-day management of CTE programs to the Department of Labor through an interagency agreement, leaving CTE and education administrative organizations worried that the educational part of job awareness and career exploration will be lost in the transition.

A recent YouScience study found that CTE still faces numerous challenges in its goal to educate students and help them identify a potential career pathway. According to the data, 40% of CTE programs struggle to find partnerships with employers, 66% of CTE leaders say students lack awareness of their options, and 57% say CTE programs still face significant bias and misperceptions.

The Fordham report released this week recommends that states: 

• Be selective in which credentials they approve.
• Discern which credentials have economic value based on longer-term outcomes.
• Open up high-value credential opportunities for marginalized students.
• Avoid making credentials a substitute for academics, using them instead to add to academics.

"Today, thousands of Ohio students exit high school with weak academic skills and credentials whose value will likely evaporate quickly," the report said. "It’s important to encourage students to develop specialized technical skills and pursue individualized pathways, but not at the expense of basic English and math competency."