The K-12 Dive Outlook on 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic continued disrupting K-12 in 2021, even as schools were largely able to return to in-person learning in an attempt to regain some semblance of normalcy. Just this week, surging cases due to the omicron variant have sent many students back to virtual classrooms as school was set to resume following winter break.

Returns to the classroom haven’t come without their own hurdles: The pandemic and its fallout for schools have taken a toll on the mental health and social-emotional needs of both students and educators, following a high-stress year of virtual learning. Districts face shortages of educators and other school staff as both burnout and coronavirus anxiety surge. 

Adding to the struggles, pandemic safety measures and controversy over curricular topics led to heated and sometimes-threatening discourse in some communities, influencing several elections in November and raising the question of whether schools are communicating what they do well enough.

With these factors stretching into 2022 and likely to impact school districts for years to come, the following eight trends will be critical to watch in the coming year.

Addressing learning and enrollment loss

Schools must continue to address learning lags and enrollment declines following school closures triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the delta and omicron variants threatening more virtual learning down the road.

While test results this and last school year confirmed predictions students of color would be most impacted in reading and math, schools have used federal relief funds to launch tutoring and other programs close gaps widened by 2020 shutdowns and intermittent closures thereafter. It’s yet to be determined whether and how those investments pay off, if the programs are sustainable, and if states can maintain funding for them once federal aid dries up.

How quickly educators can accelerate learning is also a gray area, but the timeline for turnaround is likely a long one considering impacts from the Great Recession lasted nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, schools are also contending with enrollment losses that could impact funding long-term. According to preliminary data released in June from the National Center for Education Statistics, enrollment declined by nearly 3% in 2020-21,the largest drop since the start of the century. Decreases were especially pronounced in the early grades, with a 22% decrease in pre-K and a 9% dip in kindergarten.

Some suggest enrollment may bounce back quicker than expected, while others indicate districts must do everything in their power to woo parents back, such as offering virtual and hybrid learning despite vaccination and transmission rates. A fuller picture is expected in spring 2022, when NCES plans to release final findings on enrollment.

How schools communicate with stakeholders

Navigating the onslaught of buzzwords and catchphrases in K-12 can be a challenge for even seasoned veterans in the field, but for families and communities, they can seem like another language entirely. When stakeholders hear things like “21st century learning” or “student centered,” do they have a clear idea of what that means? And what exactly is the classroom of tomorrow to a parent or legislator who may not have set foot in a K-12 school since they attended themselves?

These communication disconnects became more apparent in 2021 as education rose to a major political issue, catalyzing “parents rights” movements in a number of communities and states due to disputes over curricular content and pandemic mitigation measures. 

If schools are effectively communicating their purpose, vision and mission, should there be so much confusion and division over the specter of a topic like “critical race theory” that may not actually even be taught in K-12 classrooms? And are parents always certain that what they're demanding isn't already going on? Have educators effectively explained it in a way parents understand?

As education is driven further top-of-mind in social and political debates, honing in on these questions will be essential for school leaders in the coming years — particularly as they rise to the level of major talking points in the 2022 midterm and 2024 presidential elections.

Continued unpredictability of ed funding

This year will continue to test school administrators' patience with unpredictable budget allocations as funding cycles fluctuate away from predictable patterns, according to Julia Martin, legislative director at Brustein & Manasevit PLLC, a Washington, D.C.-based law firm specializing in education, workforce and grants management.

The good news is that when federal funding decisions are made, many programs will see higher appropriations than in the previous year.

Specifically, school systems are waiting on Congress to finalize the FY 2022 budget, which includes an administration proposal to double the allocation for Title I-A grants to $33.1 billion for schools serving a significant number of students living in poverty. 

Though 2021 saw the biggest one-time increase in K-12 funding through the passage of the American Rescue Plan, district leaders will need to budget with caution to prevent a fiscal cliff when the timelines for spending expire.

Configuring these different sources of funds — and their spending requirements and timelines — is what complicates matters, Martin said. Additionally, the continued impact of pandemic-related disruptions is putting pressure on administrators to be flexible in budget planning and spending.

In proceeding through these challenges, school systems can look for opportunities for the "braiding and blending" of federal and state funds to maximize resources and address priority areas. As education leaders await finalized revenues, they can also plan for different scenarios based on potential funding levels, Martin suggested.

Meeting social-emotional and mental health needs

Pandemic-related hardships, racial divisiveness, school violence and other challenges will continue to impact the mental well-being of school staff, students and families this year.

But as the two-year anniversary of the emergence of COVID-19 in the U.S. approaches, education stakeholders now have more resources for guidance and financial support to address critical needs. Initiatives and planning that began in 2021 will begin to take full shape this year.

Several states plan to use federal relief funding to address mental health needs in schools. According to an analysis from FutureEd, Oklahoma will spend $35 million for 300 school counselors and licensed mental health professionals, and Nevada is using $7.5 million to hire 100 school-based mental health professionals.

But even with seemingly near-universal agreement about the importance of mental health supports, shortages of school psychologists, counselors and other staff may create barriers.

Another continued challenge district leaders will face this year is providing equitable access to mental health supports for underserved students.

Additionally, school systems plan to continue proactively helping students to build healthy self-identities and relationships through social-emotional learning strategies. But experts caution SEL cannot just be a one-day lesson. School leaders will need to sustain evidence-based, collaborative efforts as an integral part of students' educations.

Maintaining staff stability

School staff shortages last year caused classrooms to double up, bus routes to be canceled, principals to fill in as teachers, and even entire schools to close. This year could be just as challenging.

Vacancies are forcing school leaders to be creative when it comes to recruitment. Tulsa Public Schools Superintendent Deborah Gist said the school system, which had 100 teacher vacancies as of Dec. 16, is looking at incentive programs and changes to ensure employees feel supported and fulfilled at the classroom, school and district levels. 

At the same time, the district is considering how it can change staffing structures to maximize positions and make certain schools are still able to serve students, Gist said.

The “hope for the best, plan for the worst” approach will likely be replicated across the country as school leaders have Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief funds to hire additional staff but can't find enough qualified employees.

Because of staff shortages, school leaders are also expected to prioritize the retention of existing teachers and staff. Offering additional staff benefits, surveying staff about preferences, and providing leadership and career growth opportunities for staff of color are some likely approaches education leaders will take to maintain staff stability.

Building community trust in educators and schools will also be a goal for 2022. Teachers and administrators say sharing best practices for cultivating positive family engagements is one way to help this effort.

Internet access and cybersecurity

Throughout the pandemic, schools and districts have asked for more resources devoted to broadband expansion and cybersecurity improvements.

Keith Krueger, CEO of the Consortium for School Networking, expects to see more state and federal dollars put into place for internet broadband in 2022, but he said investment toward cybersecurity infrastructure in K-12 has been slow despite calls for funding in recent years.

In fact, 2020 was a “record-breaking” year for cyberattacks against U.S. schools, according to the K-12 Cybersecurity Resource Center. The Federal Bureau of Investigations also released a joint report with other federal agencies in December 2020 warning that K-12 schools had become the No. 1 target for ransomware attacks.

Concern among parents is also growing in regard to student privacy and data security. Outdated laws and an increase in state rules and ed tech tools have led to more difficulty in protecting students’ personal data, too.

But momentum seems to be gaining for a new federal law updating student data privacy regulations, Krueger said, adding that whether Congress will be able to agree and vote on these updates in 2022 remains hard to predict.

Censorship in schools

As of mid-December, there were 60 “gag order” bills introduced in 2021 in state legislatures to limit discussions in K-12 classrooms about gender, race or other divisive topics, according to PEN America, a nonprofit advocating for free expression. The laws typically came about in response to debates around critical race theory or the use of The 1619 Project in school curriculum.

Since November, the number of state bills introduced to censor educators has continued to increase, and that trend will likely continue into the new year as more state governing bodies gear up for their new legislative sessions, said Jonathan Friedman, director of free expression and education at PEN America.

While there are some signs of growing pushback to these “gag order” bills, Friedman said it’s hard to predict if lawsuits against such legislation will become a trend in 2022. Even so, the damage will have already been done, as it may take years for any litigation to completely dismiss bills banning discussion of these topics in schools and punishing teachers in response, he added.

“Censorship, ultimately, is always going to backfire,” Friedman said, but added, “The scope of what is being proposed and the speed at which some Republican legislators have demonstrated they’re interested in moving these things forward does not bode well for next year and the upcoming legislation.”

Policy pingpong

With the Biden administration entering its second year, a handful of changes are expected to trickle down from the U.S. Department of Education, marking a second administration in a row that has dramatically reversed its predecessor's policy decisions. Relatively quick policy changes resulting from letters of interpretation rather than permanent changes to the law have been the hallmark of the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations.

Previously, the Trump administration unraveled much of the Obama Education Department’s changes, including withdrawing guidance released in 2014 meant to curb exclusionary discipline and its impact on students of color as well as rescinding a 2016 Dear Colleague letter that protected the Title IX rights of transgender students based on their gender identity.

Now, U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona has signaled the likely reinstatement of some Obama-era policies. In June, the department issued a Notice of Interpretation saying it will enforce Title IX to protect against discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

It also said a decision made under the Trump administration to officially dismantle protections for transgender students through a case decided by the Office of Civil Rights is inconsistent with an executive order issued by the Biden administration early in his first year on “Preventing and Combating Discrimination on the Basis of Gender Identity or Sexual Orientation.”

These unofficial interpretations may be made concrete through Title IX changes expected to be released in April 2022, when the department will propose new rules potentially changing parts of the civil rights law that were issued under former U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos. Final rules, however, will not be implemented until a feedback period and later into Biden’s term.

Similar reversal of Trump-era policy is expected for school discipline, though the timeline for those changes is unclear.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the average superintendent tenure was about five to six years. But the ongoing health crisis compounded the academic, technological, economic and emotional challenges facing district leaders, with many choosing to step down or retire early as pressures mounted. 

This was perhaps highlighted no better than in the nation’s three largest school systems — New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago — which together saw a trifecta of superintendent exits by the end of May 2021.

Amid a new spike in COVID cases due to the omicron variant, district leaders are continuing to adapt their strategies or step into entirely new situations altogether as they face “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” decisions around how to maintain in-person learning or return temporarily to remote environments alongside big-picture questions around recovering lost learning and more.

Based on their track records, their outlooks toward top issues facing K-12, and the challenges they face, here are five superintendents to keep an eye on in 2022.

David Banks

Freshly minted New York City Schools Chancellor David Banks has made waves since Mayor Eric Adams announced him for the position in December. At the time, Banks stated, “Any agency that has a $38 billion annual budget ... and yet we have 65% of Black and brown children who never achieve proficiency. That should be outrageous, it’s a betrayal,” the New York Post reports.

Banks, a longtime educator in the city, is known for founding the Eagle Academy for Young Men, a network of all-boys public schools that serve low-income Black and Latino students in grades 6-12. He set out to address the academic struggles and stricter discipline practices boys of color tend to face in schools, and The New York Times reports Eagle Academy schools have become known for higher graduation rates and prioritizing community and structure.

However, Banks has his work cut out for him: Student enrollment is down by 50,000 since 2019, around 100,000 students are homeless, dozens of schools are low-performing, and the system is among the nation’s most segregated. The pandemic has exacerbated these and other issues, giving Banks anything but an easy road to travel.

Sharonica Hardin-Bartley

As superintendent of the School District of University City in Missouri since 2016, Sharonica Hardin-Bartley has prioritized equity, trauma-informed practices and student voice.

District parent Lauren Wright-Jones told the St. Louis American in 2020, “Since she’s been the superintendent, that has just transformed the way students get to feel in their learning environment and the way their needs are met and addressed each day.”

Out-of-school suspensions in the district are down due to her implementation of mindfulness practices and restorative circles to address student conflicts, and her strategic plan for the district has placed a focus on working to “humanize, personalize and problematize” students’ learning experiences.

Alongside her responsibilities in University City, Hardin-Bartley also serves as board vice president for Big Brothers Big Sisters of Eastern Missouri and the University City Children’s Center, and she is on the boards for Alive and Well Communities, The Magic House and the United Way of Greater St. Louis. She was also on the Child Well-Being and Education Equity Committee of the Ferguson Commission.

Alberto Carvalho

After a 13-year stint leading Miami-Dade County Public Schools in Florida, in which access and equity were placed front and center, Superintendent Alberto Carvalho is set to take the reins of the Los Angeles Unified School District by March.

Under Carvalho’s leadership, Miami-Dade, the nation’s fourth-largest school system, remained competitive and innovative by expanding public school choice options via a strong magnet program and Carvalho’s own iPrep Academy, located in the district’s central office.

During a news conference following his announcement as LAUSD’s next superintendent, Carvalho drew parallels between the challenges facing the nation’s second-largest school system and those in Miami-Dade, particularly citing achievement gaps affecting low-income students, students with disabilities and Black and Latino students. The pandemic, he said, had resulted in unprecedented learning loss exacerbating those issues, EdSource reports.

How Carvalho’s proactive and charismatic approach to engaging the support of the local community on referendums and other initiatives, as well as his commitment to keeping public schools competitive on district-grown school choice options, translates in Los Angeles will be worth watching.

Millard House

Since taking office in June 2021, Houston Independent School District Superintendent Millard House has had to defuse tensions in relations with both state leadership in Texas and within the local community. 

In his first 100 days leading the district, House faced the specter of a takeover by the Texas Education Agency, prompted in part by alleged improprieties of former school board members — though he told KHOU 11 conversations with Education Commissioner Mike Morath have been productive. 

He’s also faced community pushback over mandatory masking. Additionally, the district is among those asked to provide information on hundreds of library books amid inquiries around “pornography” in school books.

But House’s tenure has also seen its share of success despite the contentious environment. The district has reportedly reengaged with around 18,000 students who were absent during pandemic learning, and House has remained focused on building community and promoting kindness.

Prior to the start of the 2021-22 school year, House, a barber during his college days, engaged with HISD students by giving them haircuts.

HISD’s new Superintendent, Millard House II, use to be a barber during his college years, so he donated his time giving haircuts to HISD students. Thank you for your service and leadership! pic.twitter.com/aY6dmIyKky

— Damon Barone (@BaroneDamon) August 23, 2021

Pedro Martinez

In taking office as CEO of Chicago Public Schools in September, Pedro Martinez, who previously led San Antonio Independent School District, inherited a district that — alongside the challenges of the pandemic — has faced an 11-day teacher strike and scandals around student sexual abuse and special education in recent years. Under his predecessor, Janice Jackson, the city also saw increases in graduation rates and math and reading scores.

The pandemic hasn’t made navigating relations with the Chicago Teachers Union any easier. Since the end of winter break, the union and district have remained deadlocked over in-person versus remote learning as COVID-19 cases spike due to omicron, leading to days of canceled classes. A district plan to have students submit at-home COVID-19 tests via FedEx prior to returning to school also led to frustrations as many families rushed to submit the results.

Btw, a huge chunk of @CTULocal1 teachers are also CPS parents, myself included. Yes, this all sucks. What really sucks is that CPS has had YEARS to plan and billions to throw at meaningful mitigation efforts and infrastructure. And we get this pic.twitter.com/XN06kuZ5HS

— Craig Newman (@craignewman) January 5, 2022

The early months of Martinez’s tenure saw other challenges, with delays in COVID-19 testing and contact tracing, as well as bus driver shortages, Chalkbeat reports.

Still, Martinez, who grew up poor in Chicago and is a first-generation high school and college graduate, brings firsthand experience to the position when it comes to the struggles facing the city’s underserved and at-risk student populations. 

While his efforts to boost integration in San Antonio, by partnering with a popular charter network to expand program offerings, proved controversial in some regards, he has said he learned there is “no magic bullet” to solving the problems facing schools and believes districts are best suited to guide their own turnarounds.

Just two weeks into the latter half of the 2021-22 school year, principals nationwide are continuing to grapple with the immense challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of these concerns — the need for inclusive and equitable education to close learning gaps, for instance, and the importance of strong and consistent communication and school culture to engage students and families — predate but were further amplified by the health crisis.

As a result, the past two years have placed an even greater spotlight on what’s working best and which leaders are standing out most for their progress in those areas. As we launch into 2022, these are five principals you'll want to keep an eye on.

Tara Desiderio

At Wescosville Elementary School in Wescosville, Pennsylvania, inclusivity factors into everything for Principal Tara Desiderio, who leads an “eclectic” student body with high populations of English learners, children with autism and those classified as gifted. 

“I think our kids are better for it because they really don't think twice about anyone doing anything better or different or anything in their classrooms," Desiderio told K-12 Dive in October. 

Achieving this mindset among the school’s 500-plus students requires her leadership team to “sit back and actually listen” to what teachers, parents and students have to say. It’s also critical to ensure students have opportunities to see themselves reflected in reading selections and other curricular materials, she said.

In addition to prioritizing voice and choice to promote inclusivity, Desiderio makes an effort to model the importance of “falling up” when mistakes are made, advising that “there are no times where we say there are problems. We say there's only opportunities to be dealt with when we're dealing with different situations”

Zachary Robbins

Rethinking approaches to school discipline has been top of mind for school leaders in recent years — and even more so in the wake of the nation’s reckoning with racial injustice in summer 2020. At Las Vegas’ Cheyenne High School, Principal Zachary Robbins set out to find a solution after seeing Black students were suspended five times more frequently than their peers despite making up less than a third of the student body.

Through restorative justice tribunals, he implemented a model where offenders can share their side of the story while reflecting on the impact their actions had on others. To make the approach time-efficient, meetings are limited to 15 minutes of the offender’s time to make sure they miss as little class time as possible. 

And to ensure costs remain sustainable, one school counselor’s caseload was reduced to allow time to act as tribunal facilitator, while student peer advocates serve in support roles.

Under Robbins’ leadership, the 2,100-student school, which serves a population that is 70% economically disadvantaged and 90% students of color, has seen its graduation rate hit a high of 91%.

Keith Ball

As much as the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted principal tenures, few school leaders served long terms prior to the health crisis either. According to 2019 data from the Learning Policy Institute, 35% of principals stayed at a school for less than two years, and only 11% remained 10 years or longer, resulting in a national average tenure of about four years.

Keith Ball, principal of Marietta High School in Marietta, Georgia, recognizes longevity and consistency are key, especially for improving school culture and student success. In August, he told K-12 Dive the first thing students see and feel is that a school leader is working hard to know everyone’s name and who they are as people rather than just being focused on the position they hold.

“That means everything to most of us as human beings, but as a kid, especially in high school, it is probably the most important thing besides basic human needs of food and shelter and clothing — that somebody you go to every single day is present and cares and is working as hard as they possibly can for you,” said Ball, a 2022 National Principal of the Year finalist.

Under his leadership, the school — with a student population that is 40.2% Black, 35.7% Hispanic, and 47% eligible for free or reduced-price lunch — advanced from a “C” to a "B" grade on the state’s report card as of 2019. It also saw its graduation rate jump from 75.7% in 2019 to 83.7% in 2020.

Taiisha Swinton-Buck

During her time as principal of Digital Harbor High School in Baltimore, Maryland, Taiisha Swinton-Buck has developed a positive behavioral interventions and supports system focused on “connection before content” to lower suspensions while raising attendance.

In addition to greeting students at the school’s front doors every day and attending athletic events, the 2021 Maryland Principal of the Year’s work to boost school culture has included meeting students where they are on platforms like TikTok. Swinton-Buck’s PBIS initiative has also included an incentive system based on students’ needs and interests, including “Digital Dollars” they can earn to exchange for field trip experiences, sporting event tickets or haircuts at the Digital Ram Hair Studio.

“I feel like she has taken care of me like I'm actually her own daughter,” student Jaelyn Lyles told the Today Show during a September event where host Al Roker told Swinton-Buck and 100 students that NBCUniversal’s parent company, Comcast, was donating a Dell laptop and one year of free internet access for all Digital Harbor students.

Julia Bott

In the 11 years Principal Julia Bott has led the Ellis Mendell School in Boston, she has strived to create a more inclusive learning environment. When she stepped into the principalship at the K-5 school, Bott set out to address disproportionately negative outcomes for students of color and has since worked with teachers, students, families and the broader school community to develop a vision that also incorporates lessons learned around preexisting problems and best practices of successful inclusion models elsewhere.

As a result of these efforts, Mendell has gone from being a school on the verge of graded by the state as underperforming to being one of Boston’s top-performing schools.

Yaaaay!!! #BPSProud of @MendellSchool School Principal Julia Bott is the Marvelous Magical Mendell leader committed to children. She provides inclusionary opportunities, celebrates their full potential and brings the joy every day! You rock! All of us @BostonSchools are so proud! https://t.co/jjcs1p0dAW pic.twitter.com/KzzLpXFB8H

— Brenda Cassellius (@BCassellius) May 5, 2021

Bott also shares her school’s best practices on inclusive instruction in the districtwide Inclusion Task Force and Advanced Work Planning Committee.

“Julia goes above and beyond to promote the culture of inclusion, antiracism and excellence we foster throughout our entire district. Julia would say she’s lucky to have her students and staff, but they are just as lucky to have her,” Boston Public Schools' Superintendent Brenda Cassellius said in a May statement on Bott’s recognition as 2021 Massachusetts Elementary School Principal of the Year.